VOTING
Early Voting
Ballot was mailed to you. You can either 1) mail your ballot, 2) drop your ballot in a dropbox, 3) bring your ballot to a voting center, or 4) bring your ballot to your county’s election official.
Election Day Voting
Ballot was mailed to you.You can either 1) drop your ballot in a dropbox, 2) bring your ballot to a voting center, 3) bring your ballot to your county’s election official, 4) bring your ballot to your polling place (in many states, to vote at your polling place, you’ll have to surrender your ballot and then vote fresh at the voting booth).
Ballot was not mailed to you. You go to your polling place and cast your vote at the voting booth.
DETERMINING WINNERS**
Deadlines for Counting & Certifying Votes
Votes are counted by elections officials (and teams of workers employed by the elections officials). Elections officials canvass the votes (ensure that they are counting accurately). Once votes are canvassed, the total vote count is certified (made official).
Delaware, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Vermont and Virginia
Votes have to be counted and the result certified within one week of Election Day.
Twenty-six states and the District of Columbia
Votes have to be counted and the result certified by sometimes between November 10 and 30.
States include battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Fourteen States
Votes have to be counted and the results certified by sometime in December.
States include battleground state Wisconsin as well as California, Texas, and New York.
Four States
No certification deadlines, so they can take their time counting votes and certifying results.
States are Hawaii, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and Tennessee.
When Votes Are Counted*
Some states allow elections officials to start counting the early vote prior to Election Day. These states will report early vote totals at the beginning of the evening Election Day. For the 2020 Election, the early vote is expected to favor Democrats and Joe Biden.
Some state do not allow elections officials to count early votes until Election Day. In these states, the Election Day votes will be reported before the early vote totals. The Election Day votes may, especially in some states, favor Republicans and President Trump.
The final count, no matter how many times a race seems to have flipped, reflect the will of the voters. The order in which they are counted does not change the ultimate vote count.
California: California now starts counting votes as soon as ballots are cast. This will speed up California’s notoriously slow vote count. However, California accepts ballots that are postmarked by Election Day but arrive days after. Votes cast up until Sunday before the election will be counted first. Then votes cast Election Day are counted. Next, the votes cast Monday and those that come in after Election Day, as well as provisional ballots, are counted. This means that the results first favor Democrats, then Republicans, then Democrats.
Florida: Florida starts counting ballots as soon as they are cast. In addition, Florida does not accept most ballots that arrive after Election Day, even if they are postmarked by Election Day. Therefore, Florida is usually able to provide enough vote information to determine a winner on election night, unless it is too close to call. Results will first favor Democrats, then Republicans, then Democrats.
Georgia: Georgia starts counting ballots as soon as they are cast. In addition, Georgia does not accept most ballots that arrive after Election Day, even if they are postmarked by Election Day. Therefore, Georgia is usually able to provide enough vote information to determine a winner on election night. Unless it is too close to call. Difficult to know whether late results (after election night) will favor Democrats or Republicans, may be a mix.
Iowa: Iowa now starts counting ballots as soon as they are cast. However, Iowa does accept ballots that arrive after Election Day if they are postmarked by Election Day. Therefore, it is unclear whether Iowa will be able to provide enough vote information to determine a winner on election night, but it is possible. Late results (after election night) will likely favor Democrats.
Kansas: Kansas counts ballots quickly. However, Kansas does accept ballots that arrive after Election Day if they are postmarked by Election Day. It is possible that Kansas will be able to determine winners on election night, except for races too close to call. Late results (after election night) will likely favor Democrats. Results will first favor Democrats, then Republicans, then Democrats.
Kentucky: Kentucky starts counts votes early and expects to have 90% of votes counted by election night. Difficult to know whether late results (after election night) will favor Democrats or Republicans, may be a mix.
Michigan: Michigan doesn’t allow early votes to be counted until November 2, so it will take longer to get determinative results here. Elections officials warn that they might not be able to declare a winner for a few days. Late results (after election night) will likely favor Democrats.
Minnesota: Minnesota allows votes to be counted starting two weeks prior to Election Day. Therefore, we may get results for Minnesota on election night, except for races too close to call. Late results (after election night) will likely favor Democrats.
Nevada: Nevada starts counting ballots as soon as they are cast. However, Nevada does accept ballots that arrive after Election Day if they are postmarked by Election Day. Therefore, it is unclear whether Nevada will be able to provide enough vote information to determine a winner on election night, but it is possible. Late results (after election night) will likely favor Democrats.
New Hampshire: While New Hampshire does have absentee voting, unlike many states, they expect the vast majority of votes to be cast on Election Day. That means that we may have results on election night. Note that absentee votes are reported together with Election Day results and therefore there may not be a clear Democrat or Republican advantage in the late vote count (plus, the late vote count will be smaller than in many other states).
North Carolina: North Carolina expects to count 80% of votes cast by the end of election night. This could be enough to project the outcome. However, votes that were postmarked by Election Day but come in days later will be counted. Therefore, except in races too close to call, results could be determined election night. The results first reported will likely favor Democrats, then they will turn for Republicans, then days later, back to Democrats.
Ohio: Most votes counted by the end of election night, so we may have results election night. Note that early votes (that were received by November 2) and Election Day votes are tabulated and the results announced election night. However, ballots that are postmarked by Election Day but received days later will be counted, so results could shift after Election Day. Luckily, the number of outstanding ballots is reported, so if races are not too close too call, we might know who the winners are. The results first reported will likely favor Democrats, then they will turn for Republicans, then days later, back to Democrats.
Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania doesn’t allow early votes to be counted until Election Day, so it will take longer to get determinative results here. Elections officials warn that they might not be able to declare a winner for a few days. Election Day results will be reported first and are likely to favor Republicans, while late results (in the days after Election Day) will likely favor Democrats.
South Carolina: South Carolina allows early votes to be counted beginning November 1 and it does not have a large number of early votes. Most votes will be cast on Election Day. The first votes to be counted are the early votes and those will likely favor Democrats. Next the Election Day results will be counted and reported, favoring Republicans.
Texas: Texas expects to have all early votes and Election Day votes counted by election night. A smaller number of absentee votes will be counted in the days that follow. The first votes to be reported will likely be the early votes and favor Democrats, then Election Day votes will be announced and probably favor Republicans. Absentee ballot tabulations, a smaller number, will come in days later and will likely favor Democrats.
Wisconsin: Wisconsin does not allow ballots to be counted until Election Day, however elections officials nonetheless expect to have results by the end of election night or early the next day (the latest may be from Milwaukee County – results are expected to be reported between 4 and 7am Central time). Some counties will count early votes and Election Day votes at the same time, others will have results for Election Day results first (favoring Republicans) and early vote results later election night (favoring Democrats).
DECLARING WINNERS
There are multiple steps to declaring a winner, but only one of them matters.
Media Coverage
First, the media outlets, based on exit polls and early vote totals (which are reported precinct by precinct by elections officials) provide updates on where the vote stands in each state. Then, the media outlets, when they feel they have enough data for a particular race or the presidential race in a particular state, call the race for who they project will be the winner.
For the presidential race, once the media outlets have called enough states to total 270 electoral college votes, they will call the presidential race and declare a winner.
For the 2020 election, given the unusually large early vote and the fact that many states couldn’t begin to count the early votes until this morning, we may or may not get a declared winner tonight. Specifically, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan votes may take longer than tonight to tally, though it is possible they will be able to tabulate enough votes to make a projection as to the winner.
Candidates Concede
Based on the calls made by media outlets and on what their own internal data and election-official data show, candidates will sometimes see that there is no clear path to victory. In these cases, they will concede their races, usually beginning with calls to their opponents and followed by calls to the media outlets. However, it is possible for the media outlets and campaigns to think they can accurately project a winner and then be wrong, despite having made concession calls.
Final Vote Counts Official
In the end, it’s the actual vote count that matters. Whether results have been reported or not, accurately or not, the votes are the voters and their final count is what determines the winner. Final vote counts are often not available for days, even weeks after elections.
When results are reported has no effect on the actual vote count. The result reported prior to final vote tallies may or may not be accurate. The accuracy of estimates and media reports doesn’t change that fact that Americans cast ballots to vote for candidates and that those votes will be counted; whether it takes hours, days, or weeks has no bearing on the number of votes cast. The final votes are set when each state and the District of Columbia certifies its election results.
November 2020-January 2021 Election Timeline
November 3 Election Day
November 11 Georgia Hand Recount Announced
November 17 Florida Election Results Certified, Trump Wins
November 19 Georgia Recount Ends, Biden Wins by 12,284 Votes
November 20 Georgia Election Results Certified, Biden Wins
November 23 Michigan Election Results Certified, Biden Wins
November 24 Nevada Election Results Certified, Biden Wins
North Carolina Election Results Certified, Trump Wins
Pennsylvania Election Results Certified, Biden Wins
November 30 Wisconsin Election Results Certified, Biden Wins
Arizona Election Results Certified, Biden Wins
Iowa Election Results Certified, Trump Wins
December 3 Texas Election Results Certified, Trump Wins
December 4 New Hampshire Election Results Certified, Biden Wins
California Election Results Certified, Biden Wins
December 14 Electoral College Meets and Elects Joe Biden for President 306-232
No faithless electors.
January 3 Congress Back in Session
January 5 Georgia Senate Runoff Elections
(Incumbent Sen. David Purdue v. Jon Ossof)
(Incumbent Sen. Kelly Loeffler v. Raphael Warnock)
January 6 Electoral Votes Counted for Joint Session of Congress
Any member may object to any state’s vote count in writing and signed by at least one member of each house of Congress (one representative and one senator). To overturn the results of any state’s vote count, the approval of the House and the Senate is required. Once the vote is completed, the President of the Senate (that’s the vice president, in this case, Vice President Mike Pence) announced the official result.
January 20 President-Elect Joseph R. Biden sworn in as President
Vice-President-Elect Kamala D. Harris sworn in as Vice President
*“What Are the Deadlines for Counting Mail-In Votes and Absentee Ballots?” Wall Street Journal, Taylor Nakagawa, Oct. 24, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-are-the-deadlines-for-counting-mail-in-votes-and-absentee-ballots-11603563534.
**FiveThirtyEight, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/.